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Before the Vote
Forecasting American National Elections
Edited by:
- James E. Campbell
- James Garand - Louisiana State University, USA
Other Titles in:
Television and Radio
Television and Radio
February 2000 | 232 pages | SAGE Publications, Inc
Over the last 50 years, the role of polling has taken on increasing prominence in the American electoral process. This book brings together some of the leading figures in political science to present their election forecasts, discuss their methodology and present their critiques of the forecasting enterprise. They consider whether ever more accurate models of predicting voting behaviour damage the political climate by making politicians increasingly enslaved by pollsters, and the effect on turnout when there is a broad consensus as to who the winner will be.
PART ONE: INTRODUCTION
Forecasting US National Elections
James E Campbell and James C Garand
PART TWO: FORECASTS OF THE 1996 AMERICAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS
James E Campbell
Polls and Votes
The Trial-Heat Presidential Election Forecasting Model, Certainty, and Political Campaigns
Alan Abramowitz
Bill and Al's Excellent Adventure
Forecasting the 1996 Presidential Election
Helmut Norpoth
Of Time and Candidates
A Forecast for 1996
Michael Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien
The Future in Forecasting
Prospective Presidential Models
Christopher Wlezien and Robert S Erikson
Temporal Horizons and Presidential Election Forecasts
Thomas Holbrook
Reading the Political Tea Leaves
A Forecasting Model of Contemporary Presidential Elections
Brad Lockerbie
Election Forecasting
A Look to the Future
Robert S Erikson and Lee Sigelman
Poll-Based Forecasts and the House Vote in Presidential Election Years
1952-1992 and 1996
PART THREE: PERSPECTIVES ON ELECTION FORECASTING
Nathaniel Beck
Evaluating Forecasts and Forecasting Models of the 1996 Presidential Election
James E Campbell
The Science of Forecasting Presidential Elections